A resolution to the biggest question for the Vancouver Canucks' future might not be a big deal after all.

Lemme explain.

What Didn't Work

On straight talent, Elias Pettersson is the most skilled skater the Canucks have. With Quinn Hughes gone, it's a one-person list. The good news is that he's signed for the next six seasons. The bad news is the previous two seasons.

Two years with just 15 goals in each is atrocious, given who he is supposed to be. He scored 27 in his rookie and sophomore seasons, just by comparison, and those are his third and fourth least productive years. Even Pettersson's much-vaunted defensive game slipped, with his even-strength Corsi dropping below 50% in 2024-25. It plummeted to 46.8% last year, but whose didn't?*

Setting It Up

It's been a precipitous drop from the century-mark high of 2022-23. Successful as it was for him, the year felt...odd. The new management had decided to go with J.T. Miller instead of longtime captain Bo Horvat, signing him to a 7 x $8 million extension before the season began. They left Horvat dangling for months before finally trading him away at the end of January. Management announced that coach Bruce Boudreau was a lame duck before the season began, but waited 48 games to fire him, a week before the Horvat trade.

Obviously, a huge "changing of the guard" happened. Rick Tocchet came in, Hughes was named captain for the 2023-24 season, and Pettersson was going into his RFA year. Now, he said in the off-season that he wanted to wait until the season was over before negotiating a new deal. Management seemed to agree. But both management and Pettersson were asked about a potential deal repeatedly throughout the year. That made sense, as the team had obviously improved, and it was going to be the most expensive deal in Canucks history, whenever it happened.

It was still a flat cap world then, and president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford and general manager Patrik Allvin wanted to know what they could spend in the coming years. Getting Pettersson's deal done was vital. Meetings carried on between the White Collars and his agent from July 1st in 2023 right until the end of February, a week before the trade deadline. But a month before the deal was done, things got really interesting.

Making It Weird

Just after the All-Star break, rumours leaked out of a potential trade with the Carolina Hurricanes. Then of possible short-term contracts instead of an eight-year one. In public, Rutherford and Allvin said how much they wanted Pettersson to stay. Pettersson, for his part, continued to say he wanted to wait until the season was over before he talked contract.

On the ice, clearly, Miller was feeling the pressure of being The Guy early. Regular outbursts, breaking his sticks, and taking bad penalties had him riding pine early in the year. But Tocchet still heaped praise on him, calling him an "emotional leader" for the team.

We know early in the 2024-25 season, Miller and Pettersson had a confrontation at practice. Word got around that the coaching staff - with the approval of management  - encouraged players to "toughen up" Pettersson. It's unlikely that it started in the 2024 training camp, but well before then, and we don't know what was said in the dressing room. But we do know there were factions, with Horvat on one side and Miller on the other. Given how each player approaches the game, that's hardly surprising. We also know how much Tocchet loves Miller and who he would back if there were a divide on the team.

It's not hard to add Pettersson's reluctance to sign, the pressure to do so from management, and his treatment at work together.

Getting Personal

Gonna talk about myself a little. Skip this bit if you want.

When I was very young - ten-ish - I was a pretty good student. School was fun, and I liked the challenges there and all the new things to discover. Not the best student in the world, but pretty good. Went into Grade Five and had a seat at the front of the class. (Don't worry, this will be over soon.) Teacher assigned some "circle the answer" homework on the first day, and I forgot to do it. Next day, he asked where it was, and I said it wasn't done.

He threw my desk across the room. Leaned into my face and bellowed for me to get out of his class.

So I was crying outside his classroom - two other kids joined me there - when he came out and chuckled at me. "What are you crying for?" He explained that he wasn't going to hurt me, obviously. He just needed to make an example of someone at the start of the year. Now I should go on back to my desk, and we'll carry on with the day. Well, with an explanation like that, what would your average ten-year-old do?

I moved myself to the back of the class and never did homework for him. Always tried to get the work done during the school day, however much was assigned. If I didn't get some done, too bad, it didn't get done. Studied and did great on tests, which helped average out my grades enough to pass. Then I got him again for Grade Six, so that sucked.

What I DIDN'T do was become a better student, because fuck him. I didn't respect him, and he didn't deserve it. I also didn't tell any other students or teachers, or my increasingly frustrated parents, because I was raised to handle stuff by myself. A terrible, self-sabotaging decision, but whaddya want? I was ten.

You can probably see where I'm going with this.

Back to Our Story

Late in January of 2024, Tocchet gave a rare public rebuke for Pettersson's play. It was deserved for the game, an overtime loss to St. Louis, where he was held pointless. But Tocchet also said he hadn't liked Pettersson's play "for the last three or four games." "We gotta get him going," and "we'll get him going" sound slightly ominous in retrospect. In the next game, the last in January, he scored two goals and three points. After that, well, it changed.

For that one month, Pettersson scored 14 goals and 21 points in 13 games. For the rest of the year, he scored seven goals and 25 points in 33 games. He pulled a few three-point games, but a lot more zero-point ones were showing up. That the best stretch of games he's played since that January was the fifteen points in ten games when Miller took a personal leave in 2024-25 doesn't seem like a coincidence.

Speaking of which, that 2024-25 season was a disastrous, turmoil-filled year for a team that somehow held on to respectability, finishing out of the playoffs with 90 points. But it was pretty clear they were going nowhere fast.

For 2025-26, Tocchet declined a return. Management took a couple high-risk swings at Filip Chytil and Evander Kane. They hoped some stability would emerge by keeping Adam Foote behind the bench. The injury gods were not kind, resulting in Linus Karlsson being the team's second-highest scoring centre. Great for him, but not so great for the team. Hughes was traded, and the rest, as they say, is history.

Petersson's form was slowly returning. In his first 28 games of the year, he scored a reasonably solid eight goals and 22 points. Then, not only was he injured, but his wife of six months suffered a miscarriage. After that terrible personal loss, a team reduced to one and a half centres, and a comically condensed schedule, this season hasn't been the best gauge of his abilities. He managed just 12 points in his first 21 games back after the Christmas break, then another 12 in the 16 after the Olympic break, then just five points in April's nine games to finish the year.

Like It or Not, He's A Keeper

Here's the crux: if you want to trade Elias Pettersson the Forward, then this is possibly the worst possible year to do so.

His offensive numbers are rock-bottom; he's got another six years to go and a No Move Clause for all of it; and he's getting paid less money this season than he did the last or will the next. With the team expecting to lose some casual fans during the rebuild, paying $3.5 million less for one player sounds great!

There is simply no way to recoup the level of talent he has in a trade because no one knows if he can get back to that level again. You're not trading a 100-point player; you're trading a former 100-point player. And in this, of all years, there certainly isn't a free agent worth pursuing to fill the gap.

Can Pettersson come back to what he was? My opinion hasn't changed since last season's preview: I think at his best, he'll be close to a point-per-game, very good defensive centre. But before he gets to being his best, there's a very important question to ask: Does he respect who he's playing for?

*Of the players who played more than 45 games? Linus Karlsson's. That's it.