Those of us who are a Certain Age(tm) may remember when John Carpenter's remake of The Thing hit theatres. Justifiably regarded as a horror classic now, at the time it left a lot of viewers disappointed, confused, and even enraged. "What was with that ending?!"
No spoilers for a 40-year-old film, but we're left, at the end, with two survivors. Neither knows if the other is the murderous, shapeshifting creature, or maybe infected, but doesn't know it. So they share a bottle with what is, hopefully, a fellow human. The end.
Filmgoers in the 1980s weren't fans of ambiguity (see also: almost any other 1980s film) and stayed away in droves. Which is a drag because, again, a horror classic. But viewers didn't get the answers they wanted handed to them on a silver platter with a vellum scroll explaining everything.*
So let's talk Elias Pettersson (the forward).
We all know what Elias Pettersson is capable of. Unfortunately, most of us know it by its absence. He has a 100-point season under his belt. He had an 89-point season under his belt. And he has a 66-points in 68 games season under his belt. Then the belt gets a little tight.
In his most recent year, Pettersson finished with a miserable 15 goals and 45 points in 64 games, all three numbers a disappointment. But he did finish strong, getting four goals and ten points in his last ten games. Just as he was getting his game back on a roll, he was injured and missed the last 12 games of the season. There's every reason to think he would have been the Canucks' highest-scoring forward if he remained healthy, but that's in a year nearly everyone else stumbled. So have a grain of salt with the projections.
The question is: what have we seen so far in this season?
He doesn't have the shelter of a J.T. Miller or Bo Horvat working the middle of the ice anymore, so he's going to draw all the attention. Heck, he might not have a Filip Chytil anymore, either. Or a Teddy Blueger, who missed the end of the game against the Capitals.
It's going to sound weird to say, but that shouldn't matter. What we're looking at is how he plays, not just who he plays against.
The biggest issue right now is trying to predict an 82-game season from the first six. There are simply too many variables, including who his teammates will be, to give definite answers there. What we can do is see what's happened so far, and it looks like a tale of two halves.
We can really cut it to "first three/second three" with the start of this road trip being the divider. In two at home and one off in Edmonton, Pettersson has been inconsistent. In every post-game conversation, reviewers will mention "flashes of the old Petey" or a specific play or two that caught their eye. But he was never The Man in the game. Quite the opposite, really, with never standing out.
In those first three games, he managed a minuscule three shots through to the net, one per game, and just one assist. He did protect the puck well, but didn't do much to really earn more than his 16 minutes or so of ice time. He didn't inspire fear in opposing coaches. The constant threat wasn't there.
In the more recent three, though, he's made a solid pairing with Conor Garland. When the duo have lined up with either Evander Kane or Drew O'Connor, chances to score have emerged. Even including their most recent match against the Capitals, with a tired and wildly undermanned forward group, Pettersson made his mark.
The post-game conversation has switched from "occasional flashes" to "he made that play work". He's intercepting passes, breaking up opposing rushes, finding his teammates more easily. The other phrase you started to hear was that he was snakebit. Doing the right thing, just unlucky not to score. Which is a heck of a lot better than not having the chances.
Finally getting his first goal in Washington was nice, but better was how he scored it. Finding the empty spot, slowing time, and putting it right where he wanted. Lindgren watched him shoot, but really had no chance. That's an Elias Pettersson kind of goal.
The roadie started in the worst possible way for Pettersson when he deflected a puck into his own net, but since then? It's not that "He's Back!" so much as "He's changed." We just have to see to what.
On what is a vibes-based team, Pettersson is key. His skill is only part of his game. There is a certain arrogance he plays with that goes beyond that, though. You can feel it when he's on, and it's awesome.
When Quinn Hughes is at the top of his game, you can see him calculating his best next play. There are numbers running over his head while he walks the blue line, taking everything in. He's putting the work in, updating the equations as he collects new information, and it shows. The amazing thing is that it doesn't slow him down in the slightest.
With Pettersson at the top of his game, everything he does feels virtually effortless. That's ridiculous, of course, because some of what he does is throwing himself in front of consecutive Alex Ovechkin shots, and there's nothing easy about that! But it feels like he's done all his work before the game and is prepared for whatever happens next. He trusts that what he does next will be the right play.
Thing is, that doesn't always mean points. Other thing is, that could still be well worth $11.6 million.
My scoring expectations for Elias Pettersson are fairly modest, and also not modest at all. I expect he'll hover at or just below a point-per-game throughout his career. Is THAT worth his massive paycheque? On its own, no. Which is why I expect he'll do more than just score.
One of the most ridiculously underrated stars in the league is retiring after this season. To me, Elias Pettersson could do far worse than follow the career of Anže Kopitar.
Kopitar was halfway through his career by the time he was Pettersson's age. Between the ages of 20 and 26, he scored 182 goals and 485 points in 532 games. Pettersson's numbers are 185 goals and 459 points in 476 games. But Kopitar has always been more than his scoring, picking up two Selke Trophies and three Lady Byngs in the back half of his career.
Those are the kind of numbers Pettersson has the talent to replicate. He also has the defensive chops to be in the Selke conversation in the coming years. He doesn't have the advantage of Kopitar's mass and never will, but that hasn't stopped him from being remarkably effective getting between the puck and his own net.
And before you say that Kopitar's only making $7 million this year, remember he signed a $10 x 8-year deal when he was 29 years old, back in 2016. The salary cap then was $73 million, not 2024's $88 million. Anyone want to argue that he wasn't worth it?
Sure, we need to see more from Pettersson than we have so far this year. Some do say that he's being paid like a star, so he should score like one. I say he should get his points, obviously. But if he's lining up against the opposition's best and beating them regularly, game in and game out? Then he doesn't need 100 points for the team to win. And that will be worth it.
*Not that I'm critical of that approach or anything. Weenies.
