The Vancouver Canucks play their first game of the preseason on September 21st, one month away. What the team will look like is a bit uncertain, but only because some free agents and AHL regulars will get their shot. What's going to happen between now and Penicton?
Lo, these many years ago, training camp was used for players to wrap up their Summer jobs. They'd leave the garage/farm/grocery store, sharpen their skates, and head back to the rink to prepare for the season. There was some extra beer to work off and a whole lot of cardio to catch up on. A few might have jogged every couple of days or lifted weights now and then, but work started in camp.
Yeah, there was a reason why the Russians did so well against Canada in the Summit Series. Fifty years ago, most NHLers didn't even start training until they showed up for camp in mid-September. Some of the young and eager kids were there to fight for jobs, but the established veterans? They got a lot of leeway about when they started the season.
Things are a little different now. Players from 18 different nations played in the NHL last season, compared to 95% being from one. So, for the folks who think it's somehow easier now compared to 50 years ago? No. Just no. There may be twice as many teams, but there are tens of millions more people in population bases trying to reach the big money.
Speaking of which, some of them will be arriving in town soon. They're not quite in game shape, but they're close. Some added mass, some speed, and some* are just trying to fight off Father Time and earn a paycheque into their 40s.
But that all is the players' objectives. They can control themselves, but most things involving the team are beyond their ability to control. The other half of the equation has been working all Summer long, too, and hopefully to greater effect.
There was a plan. We're sure that there was a plan, and that plan got tossed out the window when J.T. Miller finally agreed that he should be traded. And no, a rebuild was never an option. You don't hire Jim Rutherford and tell him to start your team over. That does make this team a bit hard to predict, though we'll take a crack.
The first thing to do with predictions is to try to see what the goals of the management are. Obviously, the ultimate goal is a Stanley Cup win, but losing Miller changed the timeline they had been working toward. Which leaves... what? Let's pack some unseemly speculation in here!
There is some chatter about keeping Quinn Hughes happy so he'll stay in town. That's odd, but it's what happens when you have a lot of time to kill in a hockey-mad town with far too many interested people. Hughes, of course, has never mentioned any interest in moving out of town. He keeps saying how much he wants to bring the Stanley Cup to Vancouver. But boredom prevails, so here we are.
Whichever direction Vancouver's management decides to go, they will want Hughes to be happy. Fortunately, he's not an idiot, so he knows there is more than one way to win in this league. And if you think it's whatever last year's winner did, stop it. That's already outdated, and they have the best team doing it. Competing against them is a lost cause, so find something else.
It boils down to two choices: winning sooner or winning later.
In this case, "later" means when Hughes will be 28, and the bulk of the scoring will come from guys in their 30s. If they're lucky, Nils Höglander is a reliable secondary scorer, if he's still in town. Now, that's not deadly, exactly, but it is a bit hopeful. The veterans will be backed up by a few up-and-comers and new additions, but none of them will be expected to carry the team.
"Sooner," on the other hand, is going to be much harder to pull off. Going from being a possible playoff team to a certainty doesn't just mean increasing their points this season. They will need to look like a team that's ready to challenge by the end of the season. Good luck there, mate.
Okay, everyone, relax. They aren't going to tank and hope to recover in three seasons. This plan means improving gradually between now and the start of 2028-29. We can't predict how trades are going to happen, but some are undoubtedly going to appear. There will be a decent amount of turnover from year to year, probably including from the top of the lineup.
That being said, the team would let some of the younger, cheaper guys coming up from Abbotsford fill in spaces. Maybe three forwards and a couple defencemen will be on the team as regulars, if not stars. Tom Willander and Johnathan Lekkerimaki should be in their second(-ish) seasons, Aatu Räty could be established in the middle six. One of the other guys in their mid-20s in the mix, too. Josh Bloom, Max Sasson, or Arshdeep Bains finding consistency.
Beyond the skaters, there has to be hope that the goaltending sticks. It would be quite a surprise for Thatcher Demko and Kevin Lankinen to continue in tandem three years from now. One will have taken the reins by then - or the worst will have happened with Demko losing his spot to injury.
There will be trades galore, and probably one with some major talent moving. There are a lot of no-move clauses to negotiate, but mostly those exist to ensure players can choose their destinations. (See Also: J.T. Miller) If something comes along and knocks them off their feet, sure, they'll go for it. And we all know Rutherford loves his phone calls.
But for the most part, a plan with this kind of time range means the team is confident in their prospects and likes the age range of their most skilled players. Ironically, not pushing for immediate success shows confidence.
This is a lot more fun, so long as you don't actually care about the team. Otherwise, it's frikkin nerve-wracking.
This is where BIG swings happen. Expect one of their favourite prospects to get moved out and high draft picks to vanish into the mist. The Minnesota Wild weren't impressed with getting the 15th overall pick in return for a player they didn't trust in the playoffs. The prices don't go down from there.
The team seems to have cooled on bringing in Jack Roslovic, and beyond him, the free agent centre pool is limited. That's being polite about it. So trades are the order of the day, and that means waiting for the right day. Don't expect a big deal to happen before camp, or even this calendar year.
Rutherford and Patrik Allvin don't like to wait for deadlines, and with the Olympic break coming in February, that seems like as good a time as any to make deals. The season resumes on the 24th with the trade deadline about two weeks later. The league should have some idea where they stand, if any team wants to fail further or take a veteran off Vancouver's hands.
Even if Filip Chytil is completely healthy and Räty steps up, the Canucks will still want security at centre. Very little can happen to convince them otherwise. A trade will happen, and it will hurt. We're talking the first and second round picks, Willander, Elias Pettersson (the defenceman), and even new arrival Braeden Cootes will be options.
Probably not until more than half the season is over. If the team is getting surprising results - in either direction - that could change things. Getting off to a hot start could buy them time, where dragging means a body swap by December first.
Any moves before the season starts would be a bit of a surprise. Unless a team suddenly reverses course, the offers have already been made and rejected. No one is likely to emerge as a hero in training camp, either, but that's not what it's for.
The team wants to succeed. Whichever direction they choose, they're going to say they want success now. They'll tell their intent by their actions.
*Wily veterans. All veterans are wily.
