It wasn't supposed to be this way - and it still might not. Quinn Hughes hasn't given any indication that he's interested in leaving, and probably never will. We're saying that now to make emphatically clear that any movement involving Hughes requires his cooperation.
So let's talk about it.
There is a lot involved in moving one of the best players in the league. What changes on the ice is the most obvious, but the effects off the ice matter, too. It's not like a team will get a second chance at a deal this big, so the pressure to get it right is massive.
One thing that Canucks fans have been worried about is that Hughes doesn't have that magnetic force he had last year. And it's true: his numbers are down this year, including his current six-game pointless streak. He's looked frustrated on the ice and sounded frustrated off it. That's not normal - and that's not good when looking at trade value. Right?
Wrong. Ignore it. The events of the past two weeks aren't going to eliminate anyone's memories of what he can do.
This management group, whether the trader is Patrik Allvin, Jim Rutherford, or both, has made two "big player" deals recently. Both Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller returned what can be called the "3P Package". That's a first-round pick, a good prospect, and an active NHL player. The active player is not just to fill a space, but often has salary cap considerations as part of the deal.
When Anthony Beauvillier came back in the Horvat trade, for instance, he was a fine middle-six player, even if he was overpaid. But he certainly wasn't the key to the deal, that being the first-round pick bringing Filip Hronek. Aatu Räty looks solid, but not spectacular. Alternatively, Filip Chytil was an important part of Miller's return, if a high-risk gamble for a second-line centre. The "lesser parts" in that deal were Victor Mancini and a first-round pick that the team, amazingly, used.
Whatever the return for Hughes, those aren't going to be nearly good enough.
Given the nature of the team, Vancouver will want players - and good ones. This is the obvious chance to bring in that centre they've needed, add some more reliable scoring than Kiefer Sherwood, and get a handful of picks and/or prospects. Depending on the quality of players returning, five solid assets is a good expectation.
"Yes" and "probably". Even if the Canucks do nothing else, moving Hughes is a rebuild. The team would change so much about themselves that there is nothing else to call it. Right now, Vancouver's attack and defence rely on him being on the ice. As good a defenceman as Hronek is, asking him to be Quinn Hughes would be ridiculous.
That being said, the team should recognize that whatever window they were aiming at before will have moved. While you don't win a Stanley Cup with nothing but 23-year-olds, it's going to be equally tough with only 35-year-olds.
Fortunately for Vancouver, they have a relatively young team. If the focus shifts to five years down the road, a few players will be self-removing. But a couple may well still be here, playing the role of savvy veterans* for the challenging group. The trick is to figure out who those are going to be now - or at least, soon - and deal the rest when a deal appears.
But what they aren't going to get back is Quinn Hughes, or anyone like him. Maybe they get lucky and end up with a prospect that blows through all expectations, ending up with a Peter Forsberg in the Eric Lindros trade. But that's something to hope for, not something to rely on.
I hear ya. I do. But bear in mind that as happy as Edmonton looks now - well, now-ish - they had four first-overall picks, two top-five picks, and a seventh-overall in seven seasons. They missed the playoffs for TEN straight seasons. Yeah, Buffalo has had it bad, in their fifteenth season of missing, but they aren't the only cautionary tale.
Chicago is slowly emerging from their disastrous stretch, but probably won't reach the second season for their second time in nine years. San Jose is fun to watch, at least, but will likely finish on the outside for their seventh year in a row. At least Anaheim finally looks like a good bet, after getting blanked for only, ah... seven years.
That is a rough ask, especially given who the owner is. We know Francisco Aqualini isn't interested in missing the playoffs even once, which partially explains why they miss them more often than not. But he has to know that what has been tried isn't working, with two postseason appearances in a decade.
Only trading a few pieces may be a better bet, though it's still not a guarantee.
For the team? Sure, it's going to take a solid plan that they stick to while being flexible enough to take advantage of opportunities. It'll also take some luck - Hughes being a seventh-overall pick was frikkin' lucky - and an owner willing to let the losses pile up. And that's going to hurt - but probably not as much as he fears.
Because here's the thing: the team will be doing something. Granted, trading Hughes seems less like "doing something" than it does "blindly panicking", but it is a huge, decisive action. Seriously, there is NO going back if that is the direction they choose. Whatever players come to Vancouver in return, they won't be as talented or effective as Quinn Hughes. They won't be able to control the game like he can, they won't have his vision, they aren't going to sell as many jerseys.
But they will be seen by the fans as the team deciding their future. It will look like a plan, even if it's one nobody wanted to make.
You can sell two things in sports: championships and hope. The first doesn't seem to be working out. Maybe it's time for Plan B.
*All veterans are savvy
