Those of us who are a Certain Age(tm) may remember when John Carpenter's remake of The Thing hit theatres. Justifiably regarded as a horror classic now, at the time it left a lot of viewers disappointed, confused, and even enraged. "What was with that ending?!"
No spoilers for a 40-year-old film, but we're left, at the end, with two survivors. Neither knows if the other is the murderous, shapeshifting creature, or maybe infected, but doesn't know it. So they share a bottle with what is, hopefully, a fellow human. The end.
Filmgoers in the 1980s weren't fans of ambiguity (see also: almost any other 1980s film) and stayed away in droves. Which is a drag because, again, a horror classic. But viewers didn't get the answers they wanted handed to them on a silver platter with a vellum scroll explaining everything.*
So let's talk Elias Pettersson (the forward).
We all know what Elias Pettersson is capable of. Unfortunately, most of us know it by its absence. He has a 100-point season under his belt. He had an 89-point season under his belt. And he has a 66-points in 68 games season under his belt. Then the belt gets a little tight.
In his most recent year, Pettersson finished with a miserable 15 goals and 45 points in 64 games, all three numbers a disappointment. But he did finish strong, getting four goals and ten points in his last ten games. Just as he was getting his game back on a roll, he was injured and missed the last 12 games of the season. There's every reason to think he would have been the Canucks' highest-scoring forward if he remained healthy, but that's in a year nearly everyone else stumbled. So have a grain of salt with the projections.
The question is: what have we seen so far in this season?
He doesn't have the shelter of a J.T. Miller or Bo Horvat working the middle of the ice anymore, so he's going to draw all the attention. Heck, he might not have a Filip Chytil anymore, either. Or a Teddy Blueger, who missed the end of the game against the Capitals.
It's going to sound weird to say, but that shouldn't matter. What we're looking at is how he plays, not just who he plays against.
The biggest issue right now is trying to predict an 82-game season from the first six. There are simply too many variables, including who his teammates will be, to give definite answers there. What we can do is see what's happened so far, and it looks like a tale of two halves.
We can really cut it to "first three/second three" with the start of this road trip being the divider. In two at home and one off in Edmonton, Pettersson has been inconsistent. In every post-game conversation, reviewers will mention "flashes of the old Petey" or a specific play or two that caught their eye. But he was never The Man in the game. Quite the opposite, really, with never standing out.
In those first three games, he managed a minuscule three shots through to the net, one per game, and just one assist. He did protect the puck well, but didn't do much to really earn more than his 16 minutes or so of ice time. He didn't inspire fear in opposing coaches. The constant threat wasn't there.
In the more recent three, though, he's made a solid pairing with Conor Garland. When the duo have lined up with either Evander Kane or Drew O'Connor, chances to score have emerged. Even including their most recent match against the Capitals, with a tired and wildly undermanned forward group, Pettersson made his mark.
The post-game conversation has switched from "occasional flashes" to "he made that play work". He's intercepting passes, breaking up opposing rushes, finding his teammates more easily. The other phrase you started to hear was that he was snakebit. Doing the right thing, just unlucky not to score. Which is a heck of a lot better than not having the chances.
Finally getting his first goal in Washington was nice, but better was how he scored it. Finding the empty spot, slowing time, and putting it right where he wanted. Lindgren watched him shoot, but really had no chance. That's an Elias Pettersson kind of goal.
The roadie started in the worst possible way for Pettersson when he deflected a puck into his own net, but since then? It's not that "He's Back!" so much as "He's changed." We just have to see to what.
On what is a vibes-based team, Pettersson is key. His skill is only part of his game. There is a certain arrogance he plays with that goes beyond that, though. You can feel it when he's on, and it's awesome.
When Quinn Hughes is at the top of his game, you can see him calculating his best next play. There are numbers running over his head while he walks the blue line, taking everything in. He's putting the work in, updating the equations as he collects new information, and it shows. The amazing thing is that it doesn't slow him down in the slightest.
With Pettersson at the top of his game, everything he does feels virtually effortless. That's ridiculous, of course, because some of what he does is throwing himself in front of consecutive Alex Ovechkin shots, and there's nothing easy about that! But it feels like he's done all his work before the game and is prepared for whatever happens next. He trusts that what he does next will be the right play.
Thing is, that doesn't always mean points. Other thing is, that could still be well worth $11.6 million.
My scoring expectations for Elias Pettersson are fairly modest, and also not modest at all. I expect he'll hover at or just below a point-per-game throughout his career. Is THAT worth his massive paycheque? On its own, no. Which is why I expect he'll do more than just score.
One of the most ridiculously underrated stars in the league is retiring after this season. To me, Elias Pettersson could do far worse than follow the career of Anže Kopitar.
Kopitar was halfway through his career by the time he was Pettersson's age. Between the ages of 20 and 26, he scored 182 goals and 485 points in 532 games. Pettersson's numbers are 185 goals and 459 points in 476 games. But Kopitar has always been more than his scoring, picking up two Selke Trophies and three Lady Byngs in the back half of his career.
Those are the kind of numbers Pettersson has the talent to replicate. He also has the defensive chops to be in the Selke conversation in the coming years. He doesn't have the advantage of Kopitar's mass and never will, but that hasn't stopped him from being remarkably effective getting between the puck and his own net.
And before you say that Kopitar's only making $7 million this year, remember he signed a $10 x 8-year deal when he was 29 years old, back in 2016. The salary cap then was $73 million, not 2024's $88 million. Anyone want to argue that he wasn't worth it?
Sure, we need to see more from Pettersson than we have so far this year. Some do say that he's being paid like a star, so he should score like one. I say he should get his points, obviously. But if he's lining up against the opposition's best and beating them regularly, game in and game out? Then he doesn't need 100 points for the team to win. And that will be worth it.
*Not that I'm critical of that approach or anything. Weenies.
If this is true, this will make 4 coaches in 4 years for the Canucks. Ouch.
It had seemed like the Canucks and Tocchet were working towards an agreement, though the news of the team having a bit of an issue with making him one of the league's highest paid coaches appears to have been a bigger issue than first thought.
We're currently waiting to see if there's an announcement forthcoming from the team, it does send out some warning bells in terms of the impact this decision could have. There was the endorsement from the Captain a few days ago, where Quinn Hughes raved about how much he loved playing for Tocchet. It's already going to be hard enough to get the best player this team's ever had to re-sign to a long term deal, and letting the coach he wanted to play for isn't going to help.
As far as potential replacements, there are a number of coaches out there right now that are looking for work. Mike Sullivan is one, and has a history both with the Canucks as well as Jim Rutherford and Patrik Allvin. It makes one wonder if this news has anything to do with Sullivan becoming available this week, though perhaps it's coincidence. Sullivan was an assistant for John Tortorella in that one cursed season Torts was inflicted upon us.
Another potential move for the Canucks, would be to keep things in house and move Manny Malhotra up from the Abbotsford Canucks of the AHL. Malhotra's garnered praise for the season the Canucks put together in the wake of endless recalls to deal with the parent club's constant parade of injuries, and currently has them in the Second Round of the AHL Playoffs. I think there's a real chance Malhotra is brought in sometime, but this seems too soon, and I would prefer he got a little more experience before leading this team.
Was the Canucks unwillingness (read: the Aqualini family) to build a permanent practice facility a factor in Tocchet not re-signing? If so, this is another strike against an ownership that was ranked 31st in a poll of players in the Athletic not too long ago.
It's shocking that just over a year ago they were a game away from the Western Conference Finals, and now they're (back) in disarray, and could again be a very different looking team come training camp. As far as Tocchet goes, if he doesn't end up in Pittsburgh, expect him to sign in Philadelphia.
Is this the right move for the Canucks? Time will tell, but coming off a disappointing season where a number of the Canucks best players were far from their best, and the team repeatedly churned out lifeless, uninspiring performances, it certainly didn't make sense to give him a massive raise. Bringing him back, fine. But it's clear he wants to move on, and if this means a new coaching staff that can work with players and re-energize them (Elias Pettersson, for example), then let's get this done.
I also should mention that Westy was advocating for this, and I did mention more than once that the systems the Canucks were using were a big part of their lack of success this season. Maybe we're gonna get what we want for a change? It's weird, because as Canucks fans, this isn't a thing that happens.
UPDATE: No Return For Taco Confirmed
Well, we made it through another offseason. This one was better than others, but still had us wondering, “What will it take for this team to shake the bad voodoo off?” The Canucks were one Thatcher Demko away from getting into the Conference finals. Unlike last October, the fans actually have expectations for this team, and I wonder if we are all just setting ourselves up for a major disappointment. The start of the season already has it share of questions, with Demko’s injuries and Joshua’s cancer, this team will have to find ways to win without a full complement of weapons.
As always, I think there are some areas that have some questions attach to them and will determine if this team can be a contender this year or if the one year of “Holy fuck, they won again.” Was a mirage.
If you go through Demko’s injuries over his career, his lower body seems to have past some sort of warranty due date. Of course, any person over 6’2 who is ask to drop down repeatedly to his knees and back up, will have wear and tear issues. The Canucks played a far better style of team defense last year, which helped them win a lot of games. To win a cup though, the Canucks need Demko to be healthy to steal the games where the special teams are less than special.
2. The Penalties that kill.
Last year, by the end of the regular season, the Canucks PK was almost at 80%. This was a great improvement over the year before. Unfortunately, this number was still in the bottom half of the league. And man, did the Oilers pick them apart in the 2nd round at some points. Coach Taco had JT and Petey out there playing PK at certain points, which did lead to some shorthanded goals, but I am sold on those guys playing more minutes on special teams, especially when the team took lots of dumb penalties. A better PK starts with taking less penalties period…and then a system that is more aggressive.
3. Defense…..(clap, clap, clap)……Defense
The loss of Nikita was expected and sad at the same time. The loss of Ian Cole….already forgotten. It will be interesting to see two different areas. The first one is having Myers/Soucy as a “2nd” pairing. The giraffe tandem got some playing time together last year and were Jekyll and Hyde. The new pairing of Forbort/Deshy will probably get sheltered minutes until Taco gets a feel for their strengths and weaknesses. The next area will be the role of the forwards, especially the new ones, and how they are asked to protect the bottom two pairings.
4. Petey.
This is probably issue number 1 or 1a. Petey’s decline in the 2nd half of the regular season and the playoffs is well-documented. He says injuring, the team said, “Say what now?” Petey is now in the first year of a monster contract and should feel less pressure…and hopefully injury free. It looks like he will get some new linemates who can score, which frees him up to create space and distribute the puck, which will open more space for his shot. It goes without saying that the team needs him to put up 90+ points and gets more of them 5vs5. Some will say that the asshole, JT, is the main cog for this team because he produces no matter what condition Petey is in, but a healthy Petey against Edmonton, could have won that series without Demko.
5. That DeBrusk guy.
Remember when everyone was saying that Guentzel was the piece to put the Canucks over the top. Me neither. The other Jake is who we got and he might be a cheaper version of Guentzel, who could put up 30+, playing with Petey. In my mind, I see a Sprong/Petey/Debrusk line, with each of them scoring 30+. (I am greedy like that). Hopefully Jake brings some of that annoying Boston swagger and douchebaggery to keep people honest around Petey. For the Canucks to have three lines that score, then Jake has to put up numbers for the 2nd line to score.
6. That October schedule
Ever heard the adage, “Win 50 games, win a prize!” Well, the prize the Canucks got was a shitty schedule to open the year. 7 games against Eastern teams, including 2 against Philly, one against Pitt, TB, New Jersey and Carolina. The Canucks are straight into the fire to start the year, and I really am hoping for a .500 or better start. Watch them lose to Chicago.
The Canucks are more of an enigma to predict this year than last. Last year they were supposed to be a shit show on certain days and played far better than anyone predicted. This year, do we hold them to that level, knowing Demko is not healthy, that the defense and offense has new parts….or do we downplay the success and dream of realistic scenarios. The Eeyore in me sees doom and gloom and hopes we can make it into the playoffs with no injures.
The end is near and the beginning is right after that. It’s been a long time since Wille D and the Sedins led the Canucks to their last true playoff appearance. And if you can’t pick up on it, I am not a fan of the play-in scenario that got the Nucks into the “Bubble” playoffs. A lot has gone wrong over the past 9 years with this team and so getting back to the promised land, especially in a year that still had so much doubt, is sweet for those of us who remember King Richard.
This season is not winding down the way I would have liked to have seen. I can only say that because of the start this team had and carried until the all-star break. I decided to look over the past 15 games to see what patterns emerge from this team, besides the inability to beat Colorado. Over that span over 15 games, the Canucks have gone 9-5-1, which has helped them hold on to first place in the division.
The Canucks never won a game where they allowed more 3 goals or more. That is a big change from earlier games this season, where the Canucks had won 13 games where team had scored 3 or more against them. Some of this…if not all of this can be due to the fact that Coach Taco has this team playing a very tight shut down system that won’t cheat to try and get that odd-man breakout. Unfortunately, when the players don’t buy into the system, there are some games that get away from them fast as seen by a 5-1 loss to LA and a 6-3 loss to Vegas.
A fundamental part of Taco’s system is that the team can’t be static while defending. They have to be picking up players or getting to spots before the opponent. When that is not happening, penalties seem to pop up, which continue to be a problem against certain teams.
| Goals | Opportunities | % | |
| PP in wins | 7 | 28 | 25 |
| PK in wins | 1 | 20 | 95 |
| PP in losses | 2 | 15 | 13 |
| PK in losses | 7 | 18 | 61 |
I think special teams might have to become more special in the playoffs. I am sure some will bring up the fact that Demko’s injury plays a part in the bad PK numbers in losses….and it does. But there is also something to be said about how this team gets out of position and takes the bad penalty, which Demko has to bail them out of. I have said all year that the Canucks PP has struggled against PKs that are aggressive, coming out to the point and rotate quickly. I apologize for putting this out on the net for all the other coaches to read, but I am sure they would have caught it by now. Kevin Bieska will always be right with his quote, “Shots, shots, shots..” That has to happen more frequently. Instead of looking for that perfect Sedin pass.
Thatcher should come off LTIR in time for Saturday’s game, but no one is really sure what the hell is going on with Elias Lindholm. Some rumors have him out for the remainder of the year, some say it’s a wrist issue that might be ready before the playoffs. I don’t think Lindholm being out for the playoffs would have the same effect if it was Joshua missing. I know…bold statement, but Dakota provides that 3rd line speed, muscle and scoring touch that is needed for the playoffs. Hopefully, the Canucks can get three lines moving again. Speaking of scoring…wouldn’t it be nice to have Podz get a couple before the playoffs start? He has done of the little things right in his own end, but just can’t get his hard shot off in time.
Usually by this time of year, teams have an idea of who their opponent with be in the first round, but the playoff picture is so muddled that the Nucks may not know until the last day. I know this, the Nucks don’t want to face any team in the West right now. None of them. Unfortunately, it seems they have to. So if I had to pick a team to face in the first round, it would be Nashville. Two reasons for this, first off, the Canucks have beat them every time this year. Secondly, the Preds had their long winning streak, so it’s out of their system and the law of averages makes them a more favorable opponent.
What do you think?
Well...I guess GMPA didn't want to listen to me and keep this team together.
I guess this is the team we never expected and it nows seems to be the shot we have dreamed about since 2011.
No pressure there.
Calgary has done well to get rid of salary and gather up draft picks from the Canucks this year. The team is a hot mess. Does this mean we are the Vancouver Flames now?
Lindholm is the top six piece that hopefully can increase his offensive numbers while providing the defensive play that has made him a consistent mention for the Selke. It will be interesting to see where Taco slots him in. He can play center or wing and kills penalties and slots into the PP.
His price tag is great....unless you include the fact he cost 2 defensive prospects and a 1st rounder....oh and maybe a 4th.
I guess we need to shift gears around here and start thinking about this team as Stanley Cup contender.
I might need a moment to let that sink in.
The next homestand might be a very tough one for the Canucks.
