Come For The Banter - Stay For The Disappointment
Nucks Fan Rebuild & Retool Center - Come For The Banter - Stay For The Disappointment
Tuesday, May 5th, is the Day of Reckoning.
Or a day of reckoning, anyway. Possibly a day that could lead to reckoning somewhere down the line in another 8-10 years, maybe. Should be an interesting one, anyway.
It seems unlikely that the Vancouver Canucks will announce a shiny new general manager hours before Tuesday's draft lottery. It seems like they want to make two hires: the GM and an "assistant to the president" or some similar title. It wouldn't be a surprise if both ot those are announced at the same time, at which point we can probably start a timer on Adam Foote's remaining time with the team.
By the sounds of it, the team has narrowed their search, culling a half-dozen names from their list. By the end of the week, they may have their choices, but there's no need for a full programme to watch lotto balls drop. They've got the Sedins for that. Everything they do immediately after the main event, however, needs a proper management team.
Let's make something completely clear, first: I am not a scout. Yes, I look at some videos, but I'm not looking at thirty videos of one CHL player. I'm not in the rinks live, I'm not paid to interview scouts. I don't have a scouting channel or website or a file folder with proprietary statistics painfully collected. All I'm doing here is reading, watching, and listening to actual specialists in the public domain and compiling it for myself.
I'm also forming opinions. THOSE I have.
While some depend on where the lottery balls land, that only involves the first few picks. It's pretty easy to form a blanket statement to cover the results, whichever direction luck takes us. And most likely, that's to the third overall pick.
Officially, Vancouver has an 18.5% chance of winning the lottery for first overall. But if you add in all of the teams that might win but can't move into first, that jumps to 25.5%. Far and away the best chance in the league, but still only happening a quarter of the time, give or take a groat or two.
If they don't win first overall, their odds of finishing with the second pick depend on who won first. Their number combinations are struck from the roll, and another draw is performed. If the team that won was over 11th overall and left Vancouver in first, or below it and bumped them to second, it makes a difference, but all told, their odds are around 19%. Don't think about it too hard.
Take Gavin McKenna. It's not complicated. Yes, there is a good argument for Ivar Stenberg, but I think the higher upside is McKenna's, and upside is what the Canucks should be aiming for. Stenberg likely has the higher floor, and that's great, but Vancouver needs a star, and McKenna has the best chance of that.
Source: Gavin McKenna @ Elite Prospects
Take the other one. Whichever of McKenna or Steinberg didn't get drafted first, take the other. If both are available, see the previous section.
Source: Ivar Stenberg @ Elite Prospects
Now things get interesting! There has been a big push for Caleb Malhotra as a semi-local favourite. Hey, if we couldn't get Macklin Celebrini or Connor Bedard, let's go for Matty's kid! That makes for a great story, but I don't think it's their best choice, because I don't think he's the best player.
Look, I have nothing against Malhotra. He sounds like an amazing guy: fantastic work ethic on the ice, polite and considerate off it. Good with kids, loves puppies, etc. But his projections are for a middle-six centre. A good one, certainly, but a middle-six centre. Is that the guy to spend a third overall pick on? He has rocketed up the rankings lately, and his reputation has only improved in the CHL playoffs. I'm a little paranoid of late surges, but these are 17-year-old kids, and sudden improvement over the course of a year isn't impossible.
Judging from opinions around the (publicly available) scouting world, though, there are likely at least two top-pair defencemen waiting. Both Chase Reid and Keaton Verhoff are thought of very highly this season. Reid for his offence and skill, Verhoff for his size and intelligence. I like Verhoff a bit more of the two, given his handedness and his league. The NCAA is not an easy league, and he's playing in it at 17.
But if the Canucks are determined to take a centre, Malhotra's fine. Or they could drop down in the draft, assuming a willing partner.
It's one of those things that never happens, but we love to play with it. Heck, the last time Vancouver made a move in the first round, they got Bo Horvat, and that worked out pretty well. It cost them the excellent Cory Schneider to get that pick, but still worth it. Maybe dropping down a few - NOT trading it away - can produce a similar result?
Thing is, the centres in this draft frankly aren't great. Good players and good prospects, but if a star emerges, it will be a surprise. NEXT year's pool looks kind of incredible from this far out, with maybe a dozen primed to go in the first round. This year, the defencemen are just better (though I'm still going for one of the Big Two wingers first). If they want a centre, pick up the phone and see if one of the teams with a second first-round pick has their sights set on some Can't-Miss Charlie.
The Seattle Kraken are feeling the pressure, so maybe they want to climb from 6th (or 7th, or 8th) to third. Or Boston, after Toronto has some bad luck and gives up their fifth, really, REALLY wants Oscar Hemming and doesn't want to risk losing him. Well, then the surrendered pick doesn't need to be this season. I don't even mind a protected one from 2027 if they're willing to pay.
Even if crowd favourite Malhotra is snatched up before the Canucks can get him in their new spot, that's okay. There are a LOT of players who seem to be in a 5th-through-8th mix. That sounds contradictory, but after the top four, it gets a bit wild out there. Heck, if Malhotra's gone, they might go for a brother play with Viggo Björk. Put him in the system that already has Wilson. Speaking of which...
Things always get blurry after the first consensus picks. If Vancouver doesn't add - or lose - any more picks, then there is still plenty to talk about. Their pick from Minnesota would be a fine place to get a(nother?) centre, with a pile of them likely available. Brooks Rogowski might be gone just by virtue of his size, but the slightly older Ryan Roobroeck or Maddox Dagenais could be available. Heck, draft Alexander Command for his name alone and see if he's actually captain material.
In the second round, I would have no qualms about using both picks on the Ruck twins. I think that would be fun, and they have piled on the points this year in Medicine Hat. But there are some warning flags, and if another team wants to take one or the other earlier, let them. They are not the stockiest dudes, and their scoring is coming in a year when several of the best CHL players went to the NCAA.
Still, Vancouver's had good luck with twins, and getting a couple guys from Osoyoos? How doesn't that sell tickets, even when they're in Abbotsford, a mere four-hour drive away?
Beyond that, it becomes a case of "who caught your eye this week" for us amateurs. Filip Ruzicka - the goaltender with Brandon - looks interesting. And gigantic. And frankly, I'm looking forward to seeing what else comes up between now and June 26th. It sounds like the teams really miss having everyone in the same room together instead of the goofy Zoom calls, and so do I. It's weirdly exciting to see a middle-aged guy stand up from a table and totter his way across the floor while a clock ticks down.
But until they restore the drama of 200 teenaged athletes and their families herded together like it's a cattle auction, our drama will have to come from four ping pong balls and fluorescent lighting. Can't wait!
